青藏高原东部强降温过程阈值的探讨及其气候特征

为解决青藏高原东部强降温的气象预报和服务问题,利用青藏高原东北部68个气象站1961-2017年逐日最低气温数据,辅以趋势分析及相关分析等方法,本文探讨了近57年青藏高原东北部强降温的阈值及气候特征,并利用NECP/NCAR(2.5°×2.5°)海温场、高度场建立了预报诊断模型。研究发现 (1) 应用改进的强降温指标统计寒潮发生的特征更符合高原实际情况。(2)受地形地貌及山脉阻挡的影响,青藏高原东部强降温次数的地域分布存在明显差异,海拔较高的山区和东部地区强降温次数明显多于盆地。南部山区24h寒潮发生的次数多于48h、72h。(3)近57年区域寒潮频次总体呈下降趋势,南部和北部的降速分别为-0.5次/10a、-0.4次/10a,并通过显著性检验；西北部盆地区降速分别为-0.1次/10a,未通过显著性检验。(4)高冷空气的移动路径是强降温预测的关键信号。研究结果为青藏高原相关部门开展农牧业资源的和旅游资源的相关决策服务提供科学依据。     

气候变化适应及其影响因素研究——山东胶州湾地区居民的实证分析

为探索气候变化感知在适应决策过程中的作用机理，本研究以深度访谈数据为基础，基于“感知－适应”分析框架，采用二元Probit模型和泊松回归模型，分析胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策和适应选择的影响因素。研究表明，胶州湾地区绝大多数居民已经感知到气候变化，半数以上居民采取了一定的适应措施，大多数居民对适应措施效果的感到满意。居民采取适应措施介于0-4项，平均为1.07项，适应措施的普及率和多样化仍有提升空间。影响胶州湾地区居民气候变化适应决策与适应选择的主要因素存在一定差异性，但“居民对气候变化的感知”不论是对适应决策还是对适应选择的影响都较大，其中又以“对降水变化的感知”和“对气象灾害损失的感知”最为显著。     

Variation in glomalin in soil profiles and its association with climatic conditions,shelterbelt characteristics,and soil properties in poplar shelterbelts of Northeast China

Glomalin-related soil protein(GRSP)sequesters large amounts of carbon and plays important roles in maintaining terrestrial soil ecosystem functions and ecological restoration;however,little is known about GRSP variation in 1-m soil profiles and its association with stand characteristics,soil properties,and climatic conditions,hindering GRSP-related degraded soil improvement and GRSP evaluation.In this study,we sampled soils from 1-m profiles from poplar(Populus spp.)shelterbelts in Northeast China.GRSP contents were 1.8–2.0 times higher in the upper 40 cm soil layers than at 40–100 cm.GRSP-related soil organic carbon(SOC)sequestration in deeper soil layers was*1.2 times higher than in surface layers.The amounts of GRSP-related nutrients were similar throughout the soil profile.A redundancy analysis showed that in both surface and deeper layers,soil properties(pH,electrical conductivity,water,SOC,and soil nutrients)explained the majority of the GRSP variation(59.5–84.2%);the second-most-important factor in GRSP regulation was climatic conditions(temperature,precipitation,and altitude),while specific shelterbelt characteristics had negligible effects(<5%).Soil depth and climate indirectly affected GRSP features via soil properties,as manifested by structural equation model analysis.Our findings demonstrate that GRSP is important for carbon storage in deep soils,regardless of shelterbelt characteristics.Future glomalin assessments should consider these vertical patterns and possible regulating mechanisms that are related to soil properties and climatic changes.     

基于CLIMEX和ArcGIS的灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区预测

基于中国820个气象站点数据、灰茶尺蠖已知地理分布资料和生物学数据,结合CLIMEX模型与ArcGIS软件模拟预测灰茶尺蠖在中国目前及未来的潜在分布范围,评估灰茶尺蠖的潜在分布范围及气候变暖对其分布的潜在影响。结果表明,灰茶尺蠖在中国目前的适生区主要分布在3°51′N~40°6′N,适生区面积占全国总面积的34.27%。中国大部分省份的气候条件均适合灰茶尺蠖种群生长。随着气候的变化,灰茶尺蠖在中国的潜在适生区面积总体增幅不大,但其组成变化较大。至2050年,预测灰茶尺蠖高度适生区面积占比达最大（22.23%）。相比各种能源之间的平衡情景（A1B）,较高能源需求情景（A2）下灰茶尺蠖在陕甘宁地区向内陆扩张更快。灰茶尺蠖在中国适生区分布广泛,应加强灰茶尺蠖预测预报,趁早采取防控措施,以保障茶叶优质安全生产。     

蔬菜中农药残留检测方法变更的验证方法探析

检测标准发生变更时,检验检测机构应做好新方法的验证工作。以水果和蔬菜中阿维菌素残留量测定标准变更为实例,详述了如何开展方法验证,以期为大家开展化学分析方法发生变更时的验证工作提供参考。     

Performance and uncertainty analysis of a short-term climate reconstruction based on multi-source data in the Tianshan Mountains region,China

Short-term climate reconstruction, i.e., the reproduction of short-term(several decades) historical climatic time series based on the relationship between observed data and available longer-term reference data in a certain area, can extend the length of climatic time series and offset the shortage of observations. This can be used to assess regional climate change over a much longer time scale. Based on monthly grid climate data from a Coupled Model Inter-comparison Project phase 5(CMIP5) dataset for the period of 1850–2000, the Climatic Research Unit(CRU) dataset for the period of 1901–2000 and the observed data from 53 meteorological stations located in the Tianshan Mountains region(TMR) of China during the period of 1961–2011, we calibrated and validated monthly average temperature(MAT) and monthly accumulated precipitation(MAP) in the TMR using the delta, physical scaling(SP) and artificial neural network(ANN) methods. Performance and uncertainty during the calibration(1971–1999) and verification(1961–1970) periods were assessed and compared using traditional performance indices and a revised set pair analysis(RSPA) method. The calibration and verification processes were subjected to various sources of uncertainty due to the influence of different reconstructed variables, different data sources, and/or different methods used. According to traditional performance indices, both the CRU and CMIP5 datasets resulted in satisfactory calibrated and verified MAT time series at 53 meteorological stations and MAP time series at 20 meteorological stations using the delta and SP methods for the period of 1961–1999. However, the results differed from those obtained by the RSPA method. This showed that the CRU dataset produced a low degree of uncertainty(positive connection degree) during the calibration and verification of MAT using the delta and SP methods compared to the CMIP5 dataset. Overall, the calibrated and verified MAP had a high degree of uncertainty(negative connection degree) regardless of the dataset or reconstruction method used. Therefore, the reconstructed time series of MAT for the period of 1850(or 1901)–1960 based on the CRU and CMIP5 datasets using the delta and SP methods could be used for further study. The results of this study will be useful for short-term(several decades) regional climate reconstruction and longer-term(100 a or more) assessments of regional climate change.     

Changes in the carbon concentrations and other soil properties of some Scottish agricultural soils: Evidence from a resampling campaign

The change in soil carbon (C) concentration, soil pH and major nutrients for approximately 1,000 topsoil sampled from on-farm experimental sites over a thirty-year period from 1950 to 1980 in north-east Scotland are summarized. This period coincided with increased agricultural intensification, which included regular liming and fertilizer additions. During 2017, 37 of these sites were resampled and reanlaysed. While pH and extractable phosphorus (P) and potassium (K) increased over this period, there was no detectable change in the percentage loss on ignition. Composite soil samples were taken by auger from a depth of 0–15 cm and compared with the corresponding archived samples collected at the initiation of each experiment. Analysis of these resampled soils indicated no significant change in soil carbon (C), although soil pH, extractable magnesium (Mg) and K and Nitrogen (N) concentrations were significantly greater (p < .001) but extractable soil P concentration was significantly less (p = .015) compared with the original samples. Even though measuring C concentration alone is a poor indicator of overall changes in soil C stocks, it does provide a relative quick “early warning” of C losses that would justify a more comprehensive measure of stocks.     

Fishmeal availability in the scenarios of climate change: Inevitability of fishmeal replacement in aquafeeds and approaches for the utilization of plant protein sources

Fishmeal is being trusted as the most reliable protein source due to its nutritional quality in terms of attractability, palatability, digestibility, excellent nutrient profiles to fulfil the dietary requirement of aquatic species. The aquaculture sector consumes >70% of global fishmeal, though aqua feeds constitute only 4% in total industrial feed production (900–1,000 Mt in 2018). The global fishmeal production has shown a downward trend of 26.50% during 2000 to 2018 due to the occurrences of El Niño–Southern Oscillationsand other climatic events, which in turn increased the fishmeal price from 452 USD/t (2000) to 1596.54 USD/t (2018). The increasing trend of aquaculture production along with reduced fish‐in/fish‐out ratios (0.63 in 2000 to 0.33, 0.22 in 2010 and 2015 respectively) indicates the resilience of the aquafeed sector for fishmeal replacement. The wide availability, reasonable price and reliable nutrient content made an interest in plant protein sources, but their utilization was limited due to poor digestibility, imbalanced profiles of essential nutrients and the presence of anti‐nutrients. Numerous methodologies are invented in recent times to enrich the nutritional qualities for maximizing the utilization of plant proteins in aquafeed formulations. The present review concludes that the aquafeed sector should use climate economics and technological innovations for substituting fishmeal to formulate the cost‐effective feeds.     

A network meta‐analysis of threats to South American fish biodiversity

While environmental alterations have made Homo sapiens the hyperkeystone species of the globe, biotic homogenization initiated a new era, the “Homogenocene.” Still, some terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems in South America are considered pristine and wild, which can lead to a general faith that economic progress is consistent with conservation strategies, even without scientific support. We compiled anthropogenic threats to fish biodiversity in a hierarchical meta‐analysis, along with an evidence synthesis of threats related to biological invasions, based on peer‐reviewed research with the aim to represent the actual conservation status of the South American ichthyofauna. We highlighted human‐related threats and synergistic effects of biological invasions, climate change, environmental alterations (e.g., pollution, aquaculture and damming) and fisheries. Considering measures that reinforce novel alien fish (e.g., artificial hybrids or genetically modified) introductions, it became clear why an eventual increase in local or regional species richness is not always beneficial to aquaculture, biodiversity, human well‐being or nature. In fact, citizens in all societal roles, including scientists, should revise their concepts about threats to fish biodiversity. Environmental policies require more than taxonomic diagnostics to achieve conservation goals under an incompatible scenario of a multiplying number of fish species and biotic homogenization. We advocate for countries in South America using science‐based strategies useful to maintain their social and economic growth along with their “remaining nature.” We live a crucial moment when the government overlooks threats to biodiversity and uses agribusiness as the most acceptable manner of fuelling the economy.     

二氧化碳浓度升高对茶树生理代谢的影响及应对技术

大气中的二氧化碳(CO2)浓度升高是工业革命以来全球范围内最重要的生态变化之一,将直接影响植物的生长发育和代谢过程。尽管CO2浓度升高对粮食作物的影响已经得到了广泛的研究,但其对茶树等重要经济作物的影响却很少受到关注。本文回顾和总结了CO2浓度升高对茶树的初级代谢(包括光合作用、呼吸作用和碳氮代谢)和次级代谢的影响,并探讨了CO2浓度升高环境下茶叶生产过程中的应对技术,旨在为CO2浓度升高背景下茶树优质高产栽培提供一定的理论基础和科学依据。